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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Central bankers will pack their bags for a few days in the great outdoors this week. But unlike the rest of us, their annual August getaway — to Wyoming — won’t be a holiday.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which kicks off Thursday, will be watched closely and for good reason. The beast of inflation has escaped its chains and is rampant around the world.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is the main act of the symposium – he is due to speak on Friday – with the public eager to hear advice on the path to setting US rates. His comments are likely to be hawkish given recent U.S. job market data and Federal Open Market Committee views — the July minutes revealed some uncertainty about the strength of U.S. jobs, but the committee has always advocated a restrictive rate-setting policy to suppress price pressures.

The Fed is not the only central bank to take an aggressive stance. For example, read the comments of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand when it raised its rate by 50 basis points last week.

However, additional clarifications seem necessary for the American markets. As noted by my colleagues at Unhedged, traders did not buy the hawkish line.

The UK’s inflation problems will be highlighted with energy regulator Ofgem’s early announcement of new (ie higher) gas and electricity price caps. Unfortunately for Brits, the indicators are that the pain of the domestic energy crisis is just beginning. There was a worrying sign last week when an Ofgem director resigned in protest at how energy price changes have given ‘too much benefit to business at the expense of consumers’.

Then there’s Ukraine, where this Wednesday will mark six months since Russia’s full-scale invasion, with a grim occasion occurring on the same date as the country’s Independence Day – and only two days after. the celebrations of the day of the national flag of Russia.

And the good news coming this week? Well, the Edinburgh Festival is back on the streets of Scotland’s capital this year and will celebrate a successful return with its traditional closing fireworks ceremony on Sunday – the same day that marks the anniversary of the ‘I Have A Dream” by Martin Luther King. . A reminder that we can build a better future.

Thank you for your continued feedback on the week ahead. Keep sending emails to [email protected], or hit reply to this newsletter email. I’m taking a week off from summer vacation, but The Week Ahead will be back next Sunday with my colleague Jennifer Creery in the writer’s chair.

Last week, I wrote that former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga would be attending the memorial ceremony marking the end of World War II, which of course was current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Apologies.

Economic data

Surveys dominate the data calendar this week, including flash reports on the Purchasing Managers’ Index and a rush in business and consumer confidence measures, giving an indication of relative economic strength across the globe.

The United States will also provide data on personal income, durable goods and home sales, while Japan will release inflation figures. On Thursday we will have the minutes of the last meeting of the monetary policy committee of the European Central Bank.

Companies

There is a post-lockdown theme for financial results this week. For some, like pandemic darlings Zoom and delivery hero, it will be about coming back to earth as the world of hybrid work takes hold. Zoom fatigue is one thing, plus a combination of an economic downturn and the ability to eat out could temper demand for home deliveries in the months ahead.

Others are hoping for things (i.e. planes) to pick up again after two years of restrictions. We have a group of airlines that publish quarterly figures.

Qantas made headlines this month for employing his managers as baggage handlers to relieve chaos in airport terminals. And it looks like the flying kangaroo has regained some rebound, predicting net debt reduction to around A$4 billion ($2.8 billion) by the end of the year, while generating growth. underlying profit of around 500 million Australian dollars in the second half.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • UK retailer john lewis ends its 97-year-old price commitment “never knowingly undersold”

  • Results: ampol H1, Focus on video communications Q2

Tuesday

  • Eurozone, France, Germany, Japan, UK and US: S&P Global/IHS Markit composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data (services and industrials)

  • EU, consumer confidence flash figures

  • UK, CBI Industrial Trends Survey

  • United States, July home sales data

  • Results: Macy’s Q2, TAG Real Estate H1, Wood H1

Wednesday

  • Brazil, monthly inflation data

  • South Africa, monthly consumer price index (CPI) figures

  • Results: costain H1, delivery hero H1, Nvidia Q2

Thursday

  • EU, minutes of the July meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

  • France, business confidence data

  • Germany, Monthly Ifo Business Confidence Index plus Q2 GDP figures

  • Mexico, Q2 GDP data

  • UK, monthly vehicle manufacturing figures from Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders

  • US second estimate of Q2 GDP plus personal income and goods trade balance figures

  • Results: Air New Zealand AF, Quoted Q4, HRC H1, Dell Technologies Q2, General dollar Q2, Graton H1, norwegian air Shuttle bus Q2, Qantas Airways AF

Friday

  • France, August data on consumer confidence

  • Germany, GfK consumer confidence survey

  • Nigeria, Q2 GDP figures

  • United Kingdom, estimated number of young people not in school, not in employment or training (NEET)

  • Results: SAS Q3

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

  • Italy, the annual conference of the European Economic Association begins at Bocconi University in Milan

  • Russia, National Flag Day – a public holiday, but offices remain open

  • In the UK, former Formula 1 boss Bernie Ecclestone is due to appear in Westminster Magistrates Court for “fraud by false representation”. Ecclestone, 91, is believed to have failed to declare overseas assets believed to be worth more than £400million to HM Revenue & Customs.

  • UK, new strike action begins when members of the Unite union who make coffins for Co-op Funeralcare down tools

Tuesday

  • Ukraine, National Flag Day

  • In the UK, up to 120 Unite union members employed by the Red Funnel ferry company resume back-to-back strike action over pay

  • UK garden hose ban comes into force. South West Water will introduce one covering Cornwall and parts of Devon, the first such restrictions in 26 years, while that of Thames Water will affect 15 million customers in the south of England. A ban for Yorkshire households begins on Thursday.

Wednesday

  • Angola, legislative elections

  • In the UK, around 1,500 Unite members working in the waste departments of 15 Scottish councils will join Edinburgh City Council cleaners in a second wave of pay strikes

  • Ukraine, Independence Day and six months since the start of the Russian invasion

Thursday

  • Algeria, French President Emmanuel Macron begins an official visit to the country

  • Uruguay Independence Day celebrations and public holiday

  • UK, GCSE results for England, Wales and Northern Ireland released

  • United Kingdom, close of the strike ballot for train drivers from the Aslef union working for Chiltern Railways, Northern Trains and Transpennine Express

  • United States, start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an annual conference of central bankers, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

  • United States President Joe Biden attends a Democratic National Committee event in Montgomery County, Maryland

Friday

  • UK energy regulator Ofgem announces October price cap which is expected to increase the upper limit of household charges by 65% ​​to £3,244 a year

  • In the United Kingdom, more than 1,000 journalists from regional newspaper publisher Reach plc went on strike over pay. Separately, more than 115,000 members of the Royal Mail Communications Workers Union will go on a four-day strike in a pay dispute.

Saturday

  • UK, Notting Hill Carnival, an annual three-day celebration of Caribbean culture dating back to the 1960s, returns to London

  • UK, third anniversary of the death of British teenager Harry Dunn, killed when his motorcycle collided with a car driven by Anne Sacoolas, the wife of a US government employee who worked at a base in the UK american air force

Sunday

  • UK, a fireworks concert marks the end of the annual Edinburgh International Festival

  • United States, anniversary of Martin Luther King’s 1963 “I Have A Dream” speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC

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