Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trading Levels

Crude oil prices have plunged more than 30% from yearly highs, with the decline now approaching key technical support levels – we are on the lookout for a possible exhaustion bottom in the coming weeks. It’s the updated targets and invalidation levels that count on the oil price weekly technical chart. Exam my last Strategy Webinar for a detailed analysis of this technical crude oil price setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – Weekly WTI

Chart prepared by Michel Boutrostechnical strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Remarks: In my last Crude oil Weekly Technical forecast we noted that WTI, “the correction threatens a deeper decline in the coming weeks – that said, we are on the lookout for downward exhaustion near key levels measured lower.” The decline extended to the beginning Support objectives at 100% after the sell-off from June to 91.86 bebefore bouncing back. A little lower, lies a more important technical confluence at 85.61-88.01– a region defined by the 2013 low, the 100% extension of the March decline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November rally.

We are on the lookout to confirm a potential exhaustion low from either of these levels in the coming weeks IF Oil’s broader multi-year uptrend is to remain viable. First week resistance look now 103.19 with wider bearish invalidation now lowered to reversal close of June week high / 61.8% retracement at 110.01-111.

At the end of the line : The correction in Crude Oil is now probing interest levels for possible support. From a trading standpoint, a good area to cut portions of short exposure/lower protective stops – losses should be limited to 85.61 IF price heads higher with a close above 111 needed to suggest that a more meaningful low was recorded this month / resumption of the larger uptrend mark. Keep in mind that a break below this multi-year uptrend would be technically significant and could fuel another bout of accelerated losses towards the 2011/2022 annual lows open at 74.94-75.35. The battle lines are drawn towards the end of the month – stay nimble here. Review my latest Short Term Technical Outlook for Crude Oil to take a closer look short term WTI technical trading levels.

For a full analysis of Michael’s trading strategy, see his Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Series on Bbuild a Jrading Sstrategy

Crude Oil Traders Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Traders Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - USOil Retail Positioning - CL Technical Outlook

  • A summary of IG Customer Sentiment shows traders are net long Crude Oil – the ratio stands at +1.31 (56.62% of traders are long) – generally weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.96% less than yesterday and 3.18% more than last week
  • Short positions are11.03% more than yesterday and 4.11% more than last week
  • We generally take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net long suggests that crude oil prices may continue to decline. Still, traders are net less long than yesterday and compared to last week. Of feeling From this perspective, recent positioning changes warn that the current oil price trend (WTI) may soon reverse higher despite traders remaining net long.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michel BoutrosTechnical Strategist at DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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