Dogecoin DOGE (-0.77%) fell below $ 0.25 before July 4the holiday weekend. From a technical standpoint, this is an extremely bearish event. On the fundamental side of things, it’s a mixed picture as DOGE’s near-term fundamentals are cloudy at best.
As of press time, two stories against Dogecoin are making headlines. Here’s a quick rundown of each:
- Robin Hood: For the second day in a row, 0% commission broker Robinhood is in the news. However, this time it is Dogecoin. In Robinhood’s IPO filing, the company said DOGE accounts for 34% of all crypto transactions. This is a huge number and it suggests that retail traders continue to be very interested in buying and trading DOGE.
- Elon Musk: Once again, Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted an obscure tweet addressed to DOGE. The tweet is an image of a bullish candlestick chart with the captions “dogecoin” and “Polytopia”. FYI, “Polytopia” is the name of a strategy game which is now included in the “infotainment” system of Tesla electric vehicles. What does Musk’s tweet mean? I have no idea.
From a pragmatic point of view, Robinhood’s news is upbeat as it illustrates 2021’s staggering interest in Dogecoin. On the other hand, Musk’s tweet comes across as a riddle and was not well received by cryptomarkets. Musk may provide some context or clarity via Twitter over the weekend.
Dogecoin loses its footing on $ 0.25
Tweet or not tweet, Dogecoin is bearish. On the monthly chart below, you can see how far DOGE has fallen compared to last spring’s glory days.
Conclusion: In technical analysis, the convergence of indicators is a good thing. For the DOGE / USD, the monthly SMA and 78% macro wave Fibonacci retracement are at $ 0.1570-71. This is a key level of support that will remain valid until July.
Until August 1, I will have purchase orders in the queue starting at $ 0.1690. With an initial stop loss at $ 0.12, this trade produces $ 0.0800 (47%) on a risk / reward ratio of 1: 2.