Remarks / Observations

  • German exports increase for the 14th consecutive month.

Asia

  • (CN) China’s July trade balance: $ 56.6 billion versus $ 52.0 billion; Y / Y exports: 19.3% against 20.0% e; Y / Y imports: 28.1% against 33.6% e.
  • CN) China July CPI Y / Y: 1.0% vs. 0.8% e; IPP Y / Y: 9.0% against 8.8% e.
  • (CN) China’s July foreign reserves: 3.236 T $ vs. 3.232 T $.

Coronavirus

  • US cases exceed 100,000 per day (6 month high); The spread of Asia is worsening.
  • Israel is reinstating restrictions and warning of another lockdown as the number of severe cases hits a four-month high.

Europe

Weidmann of the ECB (Germany): If the inflation outlook increases sustainably, the ECB will have to act in accordance with its objective of price stability. Must tighten policy if necessary to counter inflation.

Former Italian Prime Minister Conte appointed leader of the 5-star party.

Various British ministers have said they have warned Prime Minister Johnson not to remove Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak even though they have differing views on spending and blockages.

Americas

  • President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure deal lifted its last serious hurdle in the Senate over the weekend. The Senate voted 69 to 28 [includes 48 Democrats and 19 Republicans] to support the compromise provisions related to the $ 1.0 T infrastructure proposal.

Speakers / Fixed income / FX / Commodities / Erratum

Actions

  • Indices [Stoxx600 +0.02% at 470.08, FTSE -0.23% at 7,106.85, DAX -0.14% at 15,738.60, CAC-40 +0.03% at 6,818.67, IBEX-35 -0.11% at 8,869.00, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 26,079.50, SMI +0.63% at 12,253.02, S&P 500 Futures -0.17%].
  • Market Focal Points / Key Themes: European Indices open with a bullish bias and failed to gain direction as the session progressed; uptrend sectors include consumer discretionary and healthcare; the poorest performing financial and industrial sectors; McColl’s confirms the search for a capital increase; Halma announces series of mergers and acquisitions; Vectura Confirms Philip Morris Offer; Odey sells its shares in Ryanair and IAG; Delivery Hero takes a stake in Deliveroo; earnings expected in the next US session include Air Products, Dish Network and Barrick.

Actions

  • Consumer discretionary: PageGroup [PAGE.UK] -3% (earnings), PostNL [PNL.NL] -2% (gains), McColl’s Retail [MCLS.UK] -19% (confirms media reports).
  • Health: Bavarian Nordic [BAVA.DK] + 5% (vaccine study), Roche [ROG.CH] + 1.5% (test results).

Loudspeakers

  • Kropiwnicki from the central bank of Poland: Inflation at 5.0% was alarming and saw the first Polish rate hike in November at the earliest and by 15bp maximum.
  • Romanian central bank Gov Isarescu said the CPI was being pushed up by more factors at that time; raised the inflation outlook for 2021 and 2022. The tightening cycle had started without a rate hike and saw some decline in price growth due to the policy tightening. Reiterated plan for hikes taking place at the right time.

Currency / Fixed Income

  • The USD was slightly weaker during the session as brokers noted that there had been some profit taking following the greenback’s strong rise last week. EUR / USD tested 1.1742 for 4-month lows during the Asian session. Friday’s session saw a stronger dollar on expectations as the Fed moved closer to reducing the stimulus after a strong jobs report.
  • EUR / USD in the 1.1750 area in the session. The euro remains vulnerable due to the diverging outlook for central banks. Overall, markets are anticipating further easing of monetary policy from the ECB as the Fed appears to be gradually moving towards the exit.
  • Shelter flows are seen as participants warily view an increase in COVID-19 cases in Asia.

Economic data

  • (SE) Sweden August SEB Housing price indicator: 39 v 62 before.
  • (CH) Swiss unemployment rate: 2.8% vs. 2.8% e; Unemployment rate (seasonal adj): 3.0% v 3.0% e.
  • (DE) Balance of the current account Germany June: 22.5 billion euros against 18.9 billion euros; Trade balance: € 16.3 billion against € 13.5 million; M / M exports: 1.3% v 0.3% e; M / M imports: 0.6% v 0.4% e.
  • (NO) Norway Jun Industrial production M / M: + 0.9% vs. -0.3% previously; Y / Y: 4.3% against 2.1% previously.
  • (NO) Norway June Manufacturing production M / M: + 0.9% against -0.1% previously; Y / Y: 4.3% against 7.6% previously.
  • (DK) Denmark June current account balance (DKK): 18.8 M against 14.6 M previously; Trade balance: 15.3 billion against 6.0 billion previously.
  • (AU) Australia Foreign reserves for July: A $ 64.0 billion versus A $ 64.7 billion previously.
  • (CZ) Czech unemployment rate in July: 3.7% against 3.7% previously.
  • (CH) Total Swiss weekly sight deposits (CHF): 713.2B against 712.0B previously; National sight deposits: 635.9 billion against 636.4 billion previously.
  • (CZ) Czech international reserves for July: 167.5 billion dollars against 167.1 billion dollars previously.
  • (TW) Taiwan’s July trade balance: $ 5.9 billion versus $ 5.4 million; Y / Y exports: 34.7% against 33.4% e; Y / Y imports: 41.0% vs. 39.2% e.
  • (FR) Banque de France July Industrial (Business) Sentiment: 105 v 107th.
  • (EU) Euro zone August Sentix Investor confidence: 22.2 vs. 29.0e.
  • (GR) Greece June Industrial production Y / Y:% vs. 14.1% previously.
  • (GR) Greece July CPI Y / Y:% vs. 1.0% previously; Harmonized EU CPI Y / Y:% against 0.6% before.
  • (HU) Hungary July YTD Budget balance (HUF): T v -1,705T before.

Issue of fixed income securities

Look ahead

  • 5:25 am (EU) ECB daily liquidity statistics.
  • 5:30 a.m. ((DE) Germany to sell 4.0 billion euros in 6-month BuBills.
  • 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I / L bond sale (held on Friday).
  • 06:00 (IE) Ireland June Industrial production M / M: No is v -4.6% before; Y / Y: No is v 30.0% earlier (revised from 29.9%).
  • 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Live Sign Up Monthly Change: No est v -3.5K before; Live recording level: None is before version 170.9K.
  • 06:00 (IL) Israel will sell bonds.
  • 06:00 (RO) Romania will sell RON 400 million in 2034 bonds at 4.75%.
  • 6:45 am (US) Daily Libor correction.
  • 07h00 (MX) Mexico July CPI H / M: 0.6% ev 0.5% before; Y / Y: 5.8% ev 5.9% before; CPI Core M / M: 0.5% ev 0.6% before.
  • 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV IGP-DI M / M inflation: 1.3% ev 0.1% before; Y / Y: 33.2% ev 34.5% before.
  • 07:25 (BR) Weekly survey of economists at the Central Bank of Brazil.
  • 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
  • 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Friday).
  • 08:30 (UR) Ukraine July CPI H / M: -0.2% ev + 0.2% before; Y / Y: 9.9% ev 9.5% before.
  • 08:30 (CL) Chile July Trade Balance: No est against $ 1.1 billion before; Total exports: not estimated against $ 7.5 billion previously; Total imports: not estimated against $ 6.4 billion previously; Copper exports: no estimate against 4.4 billion dollars previously.
  • 8:30 am (CL) Chile July International reserves: no estimate of $ 45.0 billion before.
  • 09h00 (FR) The French Debt Agency (AFT) will sell between 4.0 and 5.2 billion euros in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bonds.
  • 9.45am (EU) Weekly update of the ECB’s QE bond purchases.
  • 9.45am (UK) BOE buys £ 1.147bn in a deal to buy Gilt APF (3-7 years).
  • 10:00 (US) Jun JOLTS Jobs: 9.270Me v 9.209M before.
  • 10:00 a.m. (US) Fed’s Bostic.
  • 11:30 a.m. (US) The Treasury will sell 13 and 26 week bills.
  • 12:00 (US) Fed Barkin.
  • (CO) Colombia July Consumer Confidence Index: -16.5 ev -22.3 before.
  • 4:00 p.m. (US) Weekly crop progress report.
  • 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand July Heavy Truckometer M / M: No est v 1.2% before.
  • 6:45 PM (NZ) New Zealand July Retail Card Spending M / M: No est v 0.9%; Total expenditure per M / M card: No against 1.6% previously.
  • 7:01 p.m. (UK) July BRC like-for-like sales Y / Y: 5.0% ev 6.7% before.
  • 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: is not v 101.8 before.
  • 19:50 (JP) Japan July current account balance: 846.2Be vs. ¥ 1.980T before; Adjusted current account: ¥ 1.713Te vs. ¥ 1.867T previously; Trade balance (BOP basis): ¥ 639.0Be against ¥ 2.0B before.
  • 19:50 (JP) Japan July Y / Y bank loans: Not estimated vs. 1.4% before; Bank loans (ex-trusts) Y / Y: Not estimated at 0.8% before.
  • 9:30 p.m. (AU) Australia July NAB Business Confidence: No est v 11 before; Trade conditions: No is v 24 before.
  • 9:30 p.m. (KR) South Korea will sell KRW400B in 2-year bonds.
  • 10:00 p.m. (PH) Philippines Q2 Q / Q GDP: -1.1% ev + 0.3% before; Y / Y: + 10.8% EV -4.2% before.
  • 10:30 p.m. (KR) South Korea to sell KRW600B in 2-year bonds
  • 11:00 p.m. (TH) The Thai government will sell THB 17.0 billion in 2031 bonds.
  • 11:00 p.m. (TH) The Central Bank of Thailand will sell THB 60 billion in banknotes.
  • 11:30 p.m. (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month coupons.


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