(Bloomberg) – A new Japanese prime minister to be installed later this month is unlikely to change fiscal or other policies enough to force the central bank to change its monetary parameters, a Bloomberg survey has shown.
All but one of the 47 economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its yield curve control and asset purchase programs unchanged in a two-day meeting ending on September 22. It’s a week before the ruling Liberal Democrats hold a leadership ballot that essentially determines the next prime minister.
Click here to read the full survey results.
Here As the BOJ remains independent, like its counterparts around the world, it would be aware of the views of politicians. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is a good example: his goal of boosting inflation through massive easing was implemented by the central bank. Still, there are few concrete expectations for the September 29 winner.
Some 84% of survey respondents predict that there will be no significant change in monetary policy due to the new political leadership, while the remaining 14% say it is hard to say.
On top of that, like much of the global central banking community, the BOJ faces limits on what it can do.
“The leading role of Japan’s economic policy has already shifted to fiscal policy of monetary easing,” said Kentaro Koyama, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Group. “It will remain the same under new management.”
A key agenda item for next week’s BOJ meeting will be how Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board assess the economic impact of an increase in Covid cases during the summer. Some board members have already indicated that the epidemic has delayed recovery. In the meantime, some of the country’s main economic centers are expected to remain in a state of emergency until the end of this month.
No economist sees the central bank signaling a reduction in Covid-related measures in the last three months of the year, down from previous expectations of 18% in a survey two months ago.
The BOJ is expected to remain at the back of the pack among its global peers. The European Central Bank decided to slow the pace of its pandemic bond purchases at last week’s meeting, and the Federal Reserve will close its meeting hours after the BOJ. The US central bank is expected to start shrinking later this year.
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