On Friday, JP Morgan’s global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic raised concerns that some of his most optimistic assumptions from the start of the year may prove to be too optimistic, in particular his prediction that the Federal Reserve and other central banks would avoid made a serious mistake in their management of interest rates.
“There is growing concern that central banks are making a policy mistake,” the closely-watched analyst said in a note to clients.
Kolanovic suggested that the central bank’s aggressive actions, combined with other macroeconomic factors, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have put the global economy at risk. This, in turn, jeopardized market expectations above the company’s consensus.
“Given the recent escalation in hawkish rhetoric, the likelihood of central banks making a policy mistake with negative global consequences has increased, and this has begun to manifest in various cracks in the currency and rates markets,” did he declare.
Taking a broader view of the Fed’s handling of the economy over the past few years, Kolanovic chided the Fed for “continued easing in the crypto/NFT/innovation bubble” followed by “unprecedented tightening in a slowing economy and war”. [in Ukraine].”
“A potential hawkish error followed a dovish error that makes two rather undone errors,” he explained.
The most recent increase in geopolitical and currency risks jeopardizes our price targets for 2022,” Kolanovic concluded. “While we remain positive above the consensus, these targets may not be achieved until 2023 or when the above risks subside.”
For more on recent market action, check out Seeking Alpha contributor Mike Zaccardi’s recap of market action in September.