S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Price Technical Forecast: Weekly Trading Levels
- S&P500Nasdaq & Dow Trade Level Technical Update – Weekly Charts
- SPX500 support 3665, 3482-3501, 3419- resistor 3906/08, 4139/96
- Nasdaq weekly break in concentration – support 10589, 9206/446 – resistance 11768, 12208, 12668
- Dow test support at 29794 (key), 28323, 27583/919 – resistance 30812, 31392, 32272
The road for stocks continued this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq poised to close deep in a technical bear market. The Dow is right behind, down more than 19% to trade just above key confluent support. The battle lines are drawn before the last full week of June. These are targets and invalidation levels that matter on the weekly technical price charts of the S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30). Review my latest strategy webinar for an in-depth analysis of these technical stock setups and lots of more.
S&P 500 – SPX500 Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by Michel Boutrostechnical strategist; SPX500 on Tradingview
Technical outlook: In my last S&P500 Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that the SPX500 was approaching key support targets at the 2021 annual open at 3734 and the The 2021 yearly low is just below 3665– a weekly break/close below this threshold could fuel further accelerated selling of the index…” The index is testing this level today and although the broader outlook remains weighted lower, do not close below would make the immediate decline vulnerable here in the short term.
Initial resistance now at 3906 supported by 4139/96– the two levels of interest for a possible SI surface depletion reached. A lower break from here keeps the focus on subsequent ssupport objectives at the 1.618% extension / 50% retracement at 3482-3501 and the closing of the high week of August 2019 at 3419.
At the end of the line : A three-week decline brings the S&P 500 into support here at 2021 lows – looking for a possible near-term inflection here next week. Rallies should be capped at 3906 IF price declines on this stretch with a close below 3665 still needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards 3500. I will post and update S&P 500 Short-Term Technical Outlook once we have more clarity on the short-term SPX500 technical trading levels.
S&P 500 Trader Sentiment – SPX500 Price Chart
- A summary of IG Customer Sentiment shows traders are net long on the S&P 500 – the ratio is +2.31 (69.80% of traders are long) – typically a bearishreading
- Long positions are3.18% more than yesterday and 16.97% more than last week
- Short positions are 4.39% less than yesterday and 23.48% less than last week
- We generally take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net long suggests that US 500 prices may continue to decline. Traders are sharper than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger downside S&P 500 bearish trading bias from a feeling point of view.
Nasdaq 100 Price Chart – Weekly NDX
Chart prepared by Michel Boutrostechnical strategist; NDX on Tradingview
Remarks: At the start of the week, we noted that “the decline followed the 25% parallel of the decline fork we have been trailing the 2021 high and if price falls on this stretch, rallies should now be capped at 11768.” Price recorded a high of 11751 this week before heading back down, but the focus remains on a breakout of this week’s range as an indication.
Breakout lower keeps focus on key support targets at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 advance to 10589 and the 1.618% extension / close of the February 2020 week high at 9206-9446. Stable resistance to 11768 supported by the 2021 low at 12208 and wider bearish invalidation at the close of the low week 2021 (12668).
At the end of the line : A break below and a test of the midline as resistance keeps the bearish bias intact here, but the immediate focus is on a breakout of this week’s range. From a trading perspective, the threat remains weaker below 12208 with a break/close below this week’s low needed to pave the way for key Fibonacci support at 10589.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Chart – US30 Weekly
Chart prepared by Michel Boutrostechnical strategist; US30 on Tradingview
Remarks: The Dow is testing confluent support through the end of the week at the parallel 25% / 38.2% retracement of the advance from the 2020 / 2021 low to 29794/856. We are looking for price reaction/inflection here.
A break/close below keeps the focus on the uncovered gap at 28323 and the next major support converge at the 50% retracement / 1.618% ext at 27583/919. Initial resistance now 30812 supported by 31392– the two levels of interest for a possible SI surface depletion reached. Wider bearish invalidation now lowered to February low at 32272.
Conclusion : The Dow fell into a key technical confluence at downtrend support – price inflection risk here. From a trading perspective, rallies should be capped at 31392 IF price heads lower on this stretch with a close below 29794 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price.
For a full analysis of Michael’s trading strategy, see his Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Series on Bbuild a Jrading Sstrategy
Active Weekly Technical Setups
-Written by Michel BoutrosTechnical Strategist at DailyFX
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