EUR / USD, S1

The dollar traded firmer, reversing half or more than half of the declines seen yesterday against its major peers. This comes amid a cautious tone in the global asset markets. Stock markets stagnated after the MSCI All Country World Index hit a new record yesterday. The prices of oil and other industrial raw materials are lower.

The dollar traded firmer, reversing half or more than half of the declines seen yesterday against its major peers. This comes amid a cautious tone in the global asset markets. Stock markets stagnated after the MSCI All Country World Index hit a new record yesterday. The prices of oil and other industrial raw materials are lower.

As for the US economy, markets continue to digest the disappointing rise in nonfarm employment in May amid a robust recovery, albeit with headwinds. The result is that concerns about the Fed’s tapering have been pushed back somewhat. Additionally, there are feuds on Capitol Hill over additional tax support.

Outside of Europe, data was mixed, with an unexpected upward revision of Q1 GDP to -0.3% q / q from the preliminary estimate of -0.6% q / q, offset by an unexpected drop in the June German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey and an unexpected contraction in German production in April. There are positives to the disappointments in the data, with the expectations component of the ZEW survey being the second highest in the series’ history (since 2001), while production prospects in Germany are good with producers sitting down. on a growing pile of unfilled orders.

Markets are now focused on Thursday, June 10, when the ECB will announce its decision following its latest policy review and when the US releases May CPI data, which has increased the potential impact on markets given the prevailing focus on the Fed’s downsizing debate. The next FOMC meeting is also looming, next week. The bullish outlook for the dollar as a whole puts weight on the outsized level of fiscal stimulus in the United States while anticipating a possible Fed pivot. For now, however, the higher inflation rate in the United States relative to its peers, coupled with investors continuing to adhere to Fed policy, should keep the greenback on a low footing. ‘equality. The ECB is expected to drop its explicit reference to buying targets and focus on the flexible nature of the program, which could give EURUSD some upside rally.

Few US data today, before the CPI on Thursday; United States NFIB fell 0.02 points to 99.6 in May after jumping 1.6 points to 99.8 in April. It was at 94.4 a year ago. Weak expectation of a better economy, where the percentage of companies reporting this fell to -26% vs. -15%, while those expecting a positive profit trend were -11% vs. -7 %. These outweighed the hike plans which rose to 27% from 21%, and expectations of higher selling prices to 40% from 36% (the latter was the highest since 1986). Also noteworthy is the record number of companies reporting vacancies, which has led 33% of small business owners to raise their wages. However, the uncertainty index fell from 80 to 79. The report noted that the most important problem was the workforce and the quality of it. It was also reported that inflation was “creeping”. the American trade deficit shrunk 8.2% to – $ 68.9 billion in April after widening 6.2% to-$ 75.0 billion (from $ 74.4 billion) in March, which is the record wide. Exports rose 1.1% to $ 205.0 billion after jumping 7.5% to $ 202.7 billion (from $ 200.0 billion) previously. Imports fell -1.4% to $ 273.9 billion from the previous rebound of 7.1% to $ 277.7 billion (from $ 274.5 billion). Excluding oil, the trade balance was -69.5 billion dollars against -73.2 billion dollars (against -72.6 billion dollars). The real trade balance in goods fell from -105.8 billion dollars to -98.6 billion dollars (compared to -103.1 billion dollars). JOLTS jobs were firmer at 9.29 million against expectations of 8.18 million and a revision of 8.29 million (against 8.12 million) in May and 7.37 million in April.

Today, EURUSD cooled from yesterday’s test of 1.2200 at 1.2164 lower earlier, representing yesterday’s 61.8 fib level (June 7). The higher rebound caused the pair to retrace today’s 61.8 Fib level (June 8) to 1.2188 before diving back into 1.2175 according to American data.

Graphic

Most stocks opened higher, United States500 up six points or 0.15% 4232.60, United States100 up 62 points or 0.45% 13943.70 and the United States30 trades down -30 points or -0.10% 34594.93.



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