Equity markets fell on the European opening, as did US futures contracts following the G7 summit. Over the weekend, finance ministers agreed to a global minimum tax rate of at least 15%, triggering a sharp drop in stocks that faded as trade moved. EMU stocks are now trading up 0.2-0.4%, Wall Street opens flat in extremely calm trading; the VIX volatility index is close to the 2-year lows (16.65). It probably is calm before the storm though, with a potentially important ECB policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. The readings of the US CPI for May also on Thursday could, for their part, rekindle the inflation / cone debate as the Fed’s meeting approaches next week. Core bond yields are healing their wounds after Friday’s wage decline. The US yield curve is steepening with variations ranging from 0.8 bps (2 years) over 1.9 bps (5 years) to 2.2 bps (10 years). The US 10-year rate is now trading at 1.575%, posing no real threat to the 1.53% support area. German rates add 1 to 1.4bp on the curve. From a technical point of view, the 10-year rate left the uptrend channel at the end of May but the support at -0.20% holds for now. Peripheral spreads do not change at all.
Nothing spectacular in the forex market today either. The dollar is a sea of calm with the trade-weighted DXY holding just north of 90. EUR / USD is in a narrow range in a narrow side channel near Friday’s close at 1.216 / 217. The Japanese yen is also better offered. The USD / JPY is slipping further south after falling below 110 on Friday to change hands in the 109.2 area. After failing to break through the big 134 last week, EUR / JPY staged a minor technical turnaround that brings the pair just south of 133 today. EUR / GBP is hovering near the now well-known 0.86 area, unable to choose sides.
The Czech Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs said today that the the unemployment rate fell from 4.1 in April to 3.9% in May. 285,800 people were unemployed compared with 346,600 vacant positions, illustrating the lingering tensions in the labor market as the economy reopens. Other data showed April industrial production jumps 55.1% year-on-year by 18.2% yoy in April. the April’s trade surplus widened further from CZK 17.6 billion to CZK 19.3 billion. EUR / CZK drifts below 25.40, approaching 2021 high against the euro.
According to the Halifax mortgage lender, UK house prices rose 1.3% M / M in May to be 9.5% higher compared to the same period a year earlier. The number marks the largest increase since July 2014. Market activity was reportedly boosted by a government stamp duty holiday, with buyers rushing to complete their purchases in order to receive maximum tax relief before the June deadline. However, according to Managing Director Galley, the current strength in house prices also indicates a more profound and lasting change as buyer preferences evolve, as increased demand for properties with more space could justify an increased willingness to spend. a higher proportion of income for housing.
In the proposed budget for the fiscal year starting in October, the US administration raised the estimate of federal student loan portfolio losses from $ 53 billion to $ 68 billion, reports the WSJ. The total amount of outstanding student debt is currently close to $ 1.6 trillion. Among other things, the higher loss estimate reflects lower reimbursements and pandemic relief arrangements. Some measures taken during the pandemic allowed for the suspension of payments which the Biden administration extended until September 30.