The WTI crude oil market initially tried to rally during Thursday’s trading session but again gave up on gains as we continue to see a lot of downward pressure in the crude oil market.
What I find interesting is that most of this is probably based on the idea that the Iranians are starting to be able to sell in the markets in general which, of course, would in theory lower the prices. increased supply.
Whether the Iranians are allowed to sell again or not is a completely different question, but at this point it seems there is at least some momentum in that direction. If so, we might see a bit of selling as the supply comes back to market. Nonetheless, there should be a pickup in demand around the world as we reopen, so I think it’s probably more likely than not that we’ll find some kind of temporal rebound. That being said, the way we ended up closing the trading session on Thursday is a bit daunting for buyers, so to be long you would probably need to see a significant bullish candle. Or at the very least some kind of stability.
If we break it down, the $ 60 level would be the next support target and then of course the $ 57.50 level which is the bottom of the triangle. Whether or not we can exit to the upside remains to be seen, but the reality is that the trend is still up, so we have to think that until proven otherwise, the trend remains intact.
That being said, there are people who claim that it started to form a bit of a ‘double top’ so there is a possibility that this incident could happen at the end of the rally. I don’t necessarily think this is the case yet, but if we went below the 200 day EMA it would be fully confirmed, or for that matter if we fall below the $ 57 level I will consider it as confirmed. One thing is for sure, the risk appetite has taken a hit over the past couple of days, so it’s worth paying attention to. Anyway, I would be careful about the size of the position initially.