Adds closing price

February 25 (Reuters)U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 3% on Friday, weighed down by expectations of weaker demand over the next week and a sharp drop in gas prices in Europe. .

On the first day of the first month, April gas futures NGc1 fell 17.1 cents, or 3.7%, to $4.470 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the contract is up 0.8%, after rising 12.4% last week.

“Today’s strong selling is likely accentuated by the violation of a two-week uptrend line, as well as updates to near-term temperature views suggesting a general warming trend next week.” , said consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates. said in a note.

Data provider Refinitiv estimated 382 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, slightly lower than the 384 HDDs estimated on Thursday. Normal is 338 hard drives for this time of year.

With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv forecast average US gas demand, including exports, to fall from 125.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 112.5 bcfd next week. .

Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 fell more than 30% after big gains the day before on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, as auction results showed, flows could resume westward via Russia’s Yamal-Europe pipeline. NG/EU

“We have seen great volatility, even for natural gas, in recent days as the market grapples with cold Arctic temperatures, as well as the external influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war,” said Phil Flynn. , senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

“Today European prices are down, that’s taken some of the psychological support out of the market,” he added.

Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants in the United States has averaged 12.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, in line with January’s monthly record of 12.4 billion cubic feet per day.

Average gas production in the United States in the lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 billion cubic feet per day in December to 94.0 billion cubic feet per day in January and 93.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions early in the new year.

Week Ended February 18 (Actual)

Week ended February 11 (Actual)

A year ago on February 18

Five-year average February 18

Weekly change in US nat gas storage (bcf):

-129

-190

-324

-166

Total U.S. nat gas in storage (bcf):

1,782

1,911

1991

1,996

Total US storage vs. 5-year average

-10.7%

-11.6%

Global Benchmark Gas Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current day

Previous day

This month last year

Average of the previous year 2021

Five-year average (2017-2021)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.47

4.57

2.92

3.73

2.89

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

30.61

39.71

6.14

16.04

7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

28.96

7.36

6:00 p.m.

8.95

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current day

Previous day

Last year

10 year standard

30 year standard

US GFS Hard Drives

382

384

293

334

338

American GFS fixed-term contracts

ten

ten

ten

ten

8

American GFS TDD

392

394

303

344

346

Refinitiv’s Weekly US GFS Supply and Demand Forecast

Previous week

This week

Next week

This week last year

Five-year average for the month

US Supply (bcfd)

Decline in US 48 dry production

94.2

93.8

94.5

83.3

US imports from Canada

8.7

9.1

8.6

8.9

US LNG imports

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total US Supply

103.0

102.9

103.1

92.4

US demand (bcfd)

US exports to Canada

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

US exports to Mexico

5.5

5.6

5.6

4.8

US LNG exports

11.6

11.9

12.1

4.7

American commercial

16.6

17.2

14.5

15.6

US residential

27.7

28.4

23.2

26.1

American power plant

25.7

26.6

23.3

26.3

American industrialist

25.1

25.4

24.1

24.5

American vegetable fuel

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.6

United States Pipe Distribution

2.7

2.8

2.5

3.1

Fuel for American vehicles

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total consumption in the United States

102.5

105.0

92.3

100.3

Total demand in the United States

122.3

125.1

112.5

112.5

Percentage of US Weekly Electricity Generation by Fuel – EIA

Week ended February 25

Week ended February 18

Week ended February 11

Week ended February 4

Week ended January 28

Wind

17

13

12

11

9

Solar

2

3

3

2

2

Hydroelectricity

8

7

7

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Oil

1

1

1

1

1

Natural gas

29

31

33

33

35

Coal

21

23

23

25

26

Nuclear

20

20

20

19

19

SNL Next day natural gas price in the United States ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current day

Previous day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

4.78

4.59

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

5.94

4.74

PG&E City Gate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

5.85

5.56

Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL

4.38

4.11

Chicago city gate NG-CG-CH-SNL

4.86

4.75

Algonquin City Gate NG-CG-BS-SNL

23.65

3:25 p.m.

SoCal City Gate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

5.90

5.87

Waha Center NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

4.66

4.49

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

4.97

5.00

SNL US Power Next-Day price ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

189.75

94.50

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

42.00

49.25

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

68.00

65.46

Middle C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

46.00

69.42

Palo Green EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

37.00

56.75

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

49.50

56.75

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)

(([email protected]; In US +1 651 848 5832, Outside US +91 8067493865; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.