If we get a rally from here, the first signs of exhaustion will most likely be a nice selling opportunity.
- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Market retreated slightly on Tuesday after a rally.
- This shows how noisy this market is and suggests that we will still struggle to go higher in the longer term.
- After all, this is a market that has been drifting lower for quite some time, and now it looks like we continue to see a lot of downside pressure.
Falling demand affects oil markets
Crude oil markets have suffered from concerns over recession fears and, as a result, falling demand. After all, if global economies start to slow down, demand for crude oil will plummet. This is particularly relevant due to the fact that OPEC had very little say in increasing production and prices continued to fall.
The candlestick is a neutral candlestick, so that suggests we have a lot of confusion, so I think we’ll continue to be cautious about putting too much into the market at any one time. I think the 200-day EMA above might offer momentum resistance somewhere near the $26 level. If we were to break above the 200-day EMA, the market should then reach the $100 level. The $100 level has a lot of psychology, so I think you would see new sellers coming back into the market.
On the other hand, if we were to fall below the $87 level, it is likely that the market will fall to the $80 level. In general, I think we are likely to go down to the $80 level, especially if the Federal Reserve needs to tighten monetary policy due to massive inflation. The CPI numbers released on Wednesday will almost certainly give us an idea of whether or not to tighten monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which, of course, will strengthen the US Dollar as a whole. Overall, I think that’s probably what we’re going to be looking at over the next 24 hours. I have no interest in buying crude oil, and I think if we get a rally from here, the first signs of exhaustion will most likely be a nice selling opportunity.
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